The report further analyzed that although use of force to solve disputes will not likely happen, cross-strait tensions will heighten if the political party supporting the Taiwan independence movement is in power and controls the parliament. The study concluded by saying that a peaceful settlement of the status of Taiwan will be in the best interest of U.S.-China relations.

In the volatile world of today the Taiwan Strait has become one of the potential flash points of conflict, a fact that has caused deep concern to the United States already with hands full of thorny issues around the globe, particularly in North Korea and the Middle East.

The intriguing thing is that protected by the U.S. military umbrella, the government of Taiwan, whether under the rule of the Kuomintang (KMT) or the current Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has been able to exploit the cross-strait crisis —- real, exaggerated or imagined —- in a calculated attempt to strengthen its reign over the island, to the chagrin of Washington, which has high stakes in regional stability.

The KMT successfully used the military threat from the Chinese Communists as a pretext to enforce the martial law for as long as 38 years. Since President Lee Teng-hui assumed office, his administration as well as that of President Chen Shui-bian has continued to take advantage of this threat to consolidate its rule in pursuit of an indigenous line or a policy of gradual independence.

Now, as the 2008 presidential elections are approaching, President Chen and the DPP, with no significant administrative achievement to boast of, are again ardently invoking the independence and anti-China sentiments of the Taiwanese to accelerate their campaign momentum, regardless of strong opposition from Washington and Beijing.

It is not that Taiwan politicians fail to realize that maintaining the status quo serves the best national interest and that any provocation of mainland China will only ruffle cross-strait stability.

They resort to provocative measures against China primarily as a tactic to bolster their weak domestic position.

A shining example is the current pro-independence and anti-China behavior of President Chen coming at a time when his popularity has sunk to the lowest point due to a string of serious corruption scandals.

Thus, the decision of the late President Chiang Ching-kuo to liberalize the policy toward China and internal opposition might be, in no small part, attributed to certain degree of self-confidence in his leadership as well as the rising status of Taiwan in the world as a result of the “economic miracle.”

In other words, when Taiwan and its leaders are strong, there are greater chances that they will not become “trouble makers.” Instead, they will choose to pursue a normal course of making the island stable and prosperous by seeking to expand contacts with China.

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