President Chen Shui-bian described Berger’s arrival in Taiwan this week as “an old friend coming to visit on a rainy day.” This is the Chinese way of saying “a friend in need is a friend indeed.”

Latin America is the single largest bloc of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, now totaling 24 after Costa Rica announced on June 7 that it had agreed to establish formal relations with Beijing.

The announcement was a telling blow to Taiwan, which fears that Costa Rica could be the first domino to fall. For years, Taiwan and rival mainland China have been locking horns in Latin America to woo allies with economic aid and other forms of assistance, including investment.

But as the mainland’s political and economic clout grows, many of Taiwan’s allies in the region have started to waver. Costa Rica, for instance, did not support Taiwan in its bid to gain admission to the World Health Organization, which voted 148 to 17 in May to defeat the bid. At that time, Taiwan had 25 diplomatic allies including Costa Rica. Apparently, eight of them did not vote in favor of Taiwan. Fears of a domino effect were not unfounded. Panama, for example, has long been an uncertainty. Nicaragua is also a problem. So is Haiti. It’s not a wonder Foreign Minister James Huang was desperate, ordering all of Taiwan’s diplomatic outposts to heighten vigilance against a possible chain reaction.

Taiwan is now facing the worst diplomatic crisis since 1971, when the United Nations voted to oust the Republic of China, a founder of the world organization and a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. Before the ousting, the ROC had more than 60 diplomatic allies including the United States and Japan. The loss of U.N. membership triggered a domino effect of diplomatic desertion by old friends and allies.

At that time, the late President Chiang Kai-shek appealed to his fellow countrymen to be “undisturbed in time of crisis.” He saw the tides against Taiwan and urged his people to be “dignified and self-reliant.” Taiwan was able to weather the storm, thanks to his leadership. In the 1980s, Taiwan became an emerging economy and one of Asia’s Four Tigers, earning the admiration and respect of the world.

It remains to be seen whether President Chen can lead the people of Taiwan to weather through the impending storm. In the past seven years, Chen did not provide the necessary leadership to make Taiwan prosper and flourish. Few can expect a miracle at the bottom of the 9th inning of a losing ball game, with two outs.

When President Berger is gone, Taiwan may experience a moment of calm before the storm. It is not a question of “if’ but a question of “when.” The situation can be best described by an old poem, “the woods rustle awaiting the rain.”

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