tries attending marathon negotiations in Beijing struck a tentative deal under which North Korea agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons program in return for economic aid. This initial breakthrough could lead to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and the reduction of tensions in northeast Asia. The deal was reached at the third session of the fifth round of the off-and-on “six-party talks” held in Beijing among host China, the United States, Japan, Russia, South Korea and North Korea. The agreement marks the first concrete plan for a non-nuclear Korean peninsula in more than three years since the talks started in 2003.
While it is too early to predict the outcome of the development, the agreement is certainly a sign of progress to resolve a looming crisis triggered by Pyongyang’s testing of a nuclear bomb last October. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, if unchecked, could touch off a nuclear arms race in the region, tipping the balance of power in the western Pacific. The prolonged six-nation negotiations aim to nudge Pyongyang into abandoning its nuclear programs.
North Korea, called by U.S. President George W. Bush an “axis of evil” for threatening world peace, has until now held an intractable position at the six-party talks, refusing to yield to U.S. pressure. Bush loathes North Korea’s Kim Jong-il, and the latter detests the American president no less. The breakthrough at the negotiating table, however, could lead to the normalization of relations between the two opponents. This give-and-take deal is in fact not new. Back in 1994, the Clinton administration reached a similar agreement with the North, under which Pyongyang agreed to freeze its operations at Yongbyon in exchange for America’s economic aid. But President Bush was more interested in “regime change” than negotiating a settlement with an odious dictator. Since he became president six years ago, he has taken a hard line on Kim Jong-il. But the reclusive and fickle North Korean leader has been defiant, refusing to budge. But times have changed, dramatically and unfavorably for both Bush and Kim. The American president is now mired in Iraq. He succeeded in toppling Saddam Hussein, but failed miserably in accomplishing his mission. The debacle has undercut his authority and gave him a humiliating defeat in the November elections. He desperately needed something that could be seen as a victory. Disarming North Korea’s nuclear arsenal by peaceful means is an opportunity he cannot afford to miss.
Kim did not fare any better. His reckless testing of a nuclear device four months ago was a political blunder. It angered not only the United States and alarmed Japan, but also infuriated mainland China, Kim’s only ally and sole protector saw it as a slap in the face. Beijing not only condemned the North’s nuclear blast, but also co-operated with the United States in cracking down on Kim’s bank accounts in Macau. Kim was under pressure to make changes, knowing that his rickety regime could collapse if Beijing pulled the plug on him. The deal would not have been possible without Washington’s concession. Bush now seemed willing to return to square one, where Clinton arrived at by engaging Kim Jong-il. One cannot but have a feeling of deja vu looking at Bush’s “breakthrough.” But he nevertheless has hailed it as a diplomatic accomplishment. “These talks represent the best opportunity to use diplomacy to address North Korea’s nuclear programs,” Bush said this week.
The U.S. president has discovered the usefulness of diplomacy in resolving international disputes. He may have also discovered the obsoleteness of unilateralism in today’s world. It behooves him to remember what Sun Tzu said 25 centuries ago in his Art of War: the best strategy is to win without fighting. The looming crisis over Iran and disputes in other trouble spots of the world should also be resolved by diplomatic means, a la six-party talks, however difficult they are.
