The G-7’s dominant role in international affairs over the past half-century was explained by its collective economic weight: Between 1965 and 2002, it accounted for a remarkably constant share of global output — about 65 percent. In recent years, however, the G-7 began an evanescence. Its share of global output has fallen to 52 percent. By 2030, it is likely to be down to 37 percent; by 2050, to a mere 25 percent.

The flip side of this coin is the rise of emerging markets. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that in 2009, as the advanced economies sink into their first collective recession since World War II, 100 percent of global growth will be attributable to developing nations. Against this backdrop, it is inconceivable that today’s global challenges could be addressed without the support of China, India, Brazil and other emerging powers. This is not simply a matter of fairness or generosity but one of efficacy and realism.

Thus the G-20 is the correct body to tackle a crisis of this magnitude. Its members account for 90 percent of global output and two-thirds of the world’s population. It is diverse — with five countries from Asia, three from Latin America, two from the Middle East and one from Africa — and represents our rapidly globalizing world.

Western leaders must be careful not to slip into old habits in dealing with their new partners. The tendency to summon others to meetings or to see dialogue as an opportunity to educate others as to their best interests is a vestige of a bygone era. Instead, the West should listen to the expertise and concerns expressed by leaders of developing countries and treat them as full and equal partners, not as guests fortunate to be invited.

Behavior of this kind will improve the chances of a successful conclusion to the crisis talks. If, however, the recent history of global cooperation is anything to go by, achieving such an outcome will not be easy. Failure to deliver multilateral responses on key global issues has been a regrettable hallmark of the past decade: We have been unable to reach agreement at the global trade talks commenced some seven years ago at Doha; we neither reached a consensus on curbing greenhouse gas emissions nor designed a credible system for the enforcement of targets at Kyoto; we are failing to deliver on the aid pledges made at the Group of Eight meeting in Gleneagles, Scotland, in 2005 and are consequently in danger of missing the U.N. Millennium Development Goals. By no means is this list exhaustive; from nuclear nonproliferation to managing strategic oil reserves and food stockpiles, our efforts have fallen short.

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