U.S. primary elections and support for Taiwan

Neither Democratic candidate has offered policy statements as specific as McCain. Both Democratic candidates come out of the neo-liberal foreign policy tradition that places more emphasis on values and international institutions. This neo-liberal tradition is less cynical about international relations and hence, has more room to believe that China’s rise can be managed and shaped. In general, Clinton takes a less idealistic view than Obama, but the difference is one of a few degrees, not a major differentiator.

Like the neo-realist tradition, the neo-liberal approach appreciates the democratic evolution of Taiwan and historical ties between the U.S. and Taiwan. However, the neo-liberal tradition is also more willing to accentuate the potential positive power behind the as yet unrealized promise of political change in China.

On a second tier level the cross-strait issue ironically demonstrates that neo-realists consider values and institutions and that neo-liberals understand power. Unfortunately for Taiwan issues, overall policy tilts toward China in both cases, and Taiwan is either a hedge or an add-on.

In conclusion, the primary difference seems to be the general foreign policy orientation of McCain in contrast to Clinton and Obama. Although the evidence is slim, given a “non-provocative” stance by Taiwanese leadership, McCain is the candidate most likely to be sympathetic to Taiwan. However, for all, China will dominate their political calculations of policy in East Asia.

(This article was earlier posted on “Taiwan Perspective” of INPR as part of a longer piece.)

Dr. William C. Vocke, Jr. was a former visiting professor at National Cheng Chi University’s Department of Diplomacy, and board member of the Fulbright Program in Taiwan and the American Chamber of Commerce.

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