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Updated Wednesday, March 26, 2008 0:00 am TWN, By William C. Vocke, Jr., Ph.D., Special to The China Post

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U.S. primary elections and their policy implications on Taiwan

Do not be misled by candidates’ negative references to China. In the election China becomes a scapegoat for failed American economic policies and an easy target, but the foreign policy of the next president is not likely to change based on electioneering.

Look at the differences between the campaign rhetoric of Bill Clinton and G.W. Bush and their actual policies toward China. China is simply too economically and strategically important. Negative campaigning targeting China has no positive implications for Taiwan.

In fact, trade agreements are a policy arena where the candidates’ targeting of both China and NAFTA has a negative impact on Taiwan. A Taiwan-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) becomes less likely the worse the American economy and the more trade becomes a campaign issue. The only hope for an FTA is if Taiwan takes an aggressive negotiation stance; includes all the Democratic demands on labor, human rights, and the environment; and actively lobbies to model a new type of FTA. The candidates have all made statements in the past from which ideas can be gleaned, but a Senator’s policy statements are not good predictors to a President’s actions. The constituencies, mission, and responsibilities are fundamentally different.

Furthermore, unless forced by international events, none of the candidates will alter the fundamental tenets of the Shanghai Communique, the Taiwan Relations Act, or their subsequent amplifications. An old saying underscores the rationale: “Best let sleeping dogs lie.”

In particular, none of the candidates wishes to see the status quo in the Straits destabilized. Taiwanese actions that were viewed provocative by the Bush Administration will receive a similar reception by the current candidates. Were President Chen to remain in office, his approach would not find a more positive reception from a new U.S. President.

(This article was earlier posted on “Taiwan Perspective” of INPR as part of a longer piece.)

(To be continued)

Dr. William C. Vocke, Jr. was a former visiting professor at National Cheng Chi University’s Department of Diplomacy, and board member of the Fulbright Program in Taiwan and the American Chamber of Commerce.

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