2012 election's only certainty is next leader will lack dynamism

　Polling in Taiwan is notoriously inaccurate. Results vary wildly depending on whether the source is from an organization which supports the blue camp's Kuomintang (KMT) or the green camp's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Mandates

When Ma came to power in 2008, it was with a landslide victory — 58.45 percent against the 41.55 percent of DPP candidate Frank Hsieh. The support came from a public fed up with the previous administration of Chen Shui-bian, and responsive to Ma's focus on the economy — especially his policies to open up the nation to doing business with China.

This mandate, unseen since Lee Teng-hui's win in 1996, gave Ma the political clout to pass the economic cooperative framework agreement (ECFA) trade pact with China, and expand cross-strait exchanges in other areas, such as tourism, education and culture. These policies triggered heated debate and protest from the pan-green camp.

Ma Doomed by Global Economy?

Taiwan retained impressive growth throughout the Great Recession while nearly every developed country saw their economies take a huge hit and jobs tumble. In this respect Ma's cross-strait focus has proven indispensible, but global pressures have still made themselves felt. The president's “6-3-3” (6 percent annual economic growth, US$30,000 per capita GDP, 3 percent or less unemployment) was a costly mistake, and one easy for the DPP to capitalize on.

Four years after Ma's election, the world remains on edge as fears of another recession grow. In these circumstances large, specific promises are even more dangerous. Premier Wu even admitted it may not be possible to reach the 6-3-3 goals by 2016. The KMT and DPP have both learned from this mistake and refrained from such targets, instead making broad policy overtones — the details have been left largely for the mudslinging.

A Ma Victory

If Ma were to win, even by the unlikely 5-percent margin suggested by an averaging of pro-KMT polls, it would be far from the kind of hearty public endorsement of the last four years Ma's administration would like.

Though Ma may see that a smooth continuation of his policies and of financial interaction with China is healthy for an economy, there are a few things that could stand in his way.

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