Afghan mire is getting worse for US

Clinton's visit drew renewed attention to this idea but many U.S. observers remain skeptical: to draw a distinction between different Taliban groups appears doubtful to them, as does Pakistan's ability to bring back those to which they retain links.

But in Afghanistan itself Karzai is taking further steps in this direction. Efforts to divide the Taliban and co-opt some of them may look like an adroit political maneuver but it is not yet certain what it could portend. Thus these developments trouble many in the U.S.A and generate uncertainty about the terms on which a settlement might be made.

Kayani's Extension

In the course of her tour, Clinton went to Islamabad. The most important development there, which took place after she had departed from the region, was the three-year extension granted to General Kayani as the chief of the army.

Though the Secretary of State was not present when it was announced, it can be assumed that this important decision had the blessings of Washington. The General has been warmly received in the U.S.A during his recent visits and accorded the honors due to a leading ally.

To an extent, this is understandable, for the role of Pakistan's army is critical in the last phase of the Afghan war now under way, and General Kayani has been responsive to U.S. needs.

Without military cooperation from Pakistan, which has continued to be provided despite periodic outcries from civilian authorities, it would not have been possible to maintain activities like the drone attacks on the insurgents, these being currently perhaps the most important weapons in the U.S. armory.

Outside Pakistan, and especially in India, the extension of the General's tenure has only revived fears about the roots of democracy in Pakistan, the entrenched position of the army, and the prospects for peace and cooperation in South Asia.

The civilian government in nominal command, when it first came to power, had emphasized the need to turn a fresh page and move towards reconciliation and greatly expanded economic cooperation between India and Pakistan.

But progressively that message has become weaker, perhaps on account of the waning of civilian authority. It is now clearer than ever that the main source of power is with the military, not the civilian leadership, and hopes for improved ties are flickering.

For a number of reasons, India has not appeared to have a strong voice in the key discussions on Afghanistan that claim attention within the region and in Washington. Clinton omitted New Delhi from her itinerary, which was of a piece with the Administration's careful separation of “AfPak” from India, but it also suggested that New Delhi's preoccupations are not fully echoed in Washington or in Kabul.

Yet India's interests in these regional developments are ineluctable and ways of advancing them need to be found. It is not an easy task but a necessary one.

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