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Updated Tuesday, July 27, 2010 10:02 am TWN, By Trudy Rubin, MCT

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Obama's detrimental Afghan deadline

Some 7/11 advocates seek a quick U.S. withdrawal. Bad idea. Not only would it precipitate civil and regional war, but it would also galvanize jihadis worldwide as al-Qaeda proclaimed victory over the leading superpower. It would also further destabilize neighboring Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country already threatened by radical Islamists within.

Others call for the United States to return to a “light footprint,” meaning troop cuts and withdrawal to bases in Kabul and Kandahar, while U.S. Special Forces and airpower continue fighting. This approach failed after our initial victory over the Taliban, and it's hard to see how it could work now. If most of the country were left to the Taliban, tribal leaders would stop providing intelligence, supply routes would be cut, and U.S. enclaves would be vulnerable. Bombing mobile insurgents in populated areas would not solve the problems.

“I think this is a recipe for Dien Bien Phu in the Hindu Kush,” said Kilcullen, referring to the disastrous 1954 defeat of French troops in Vietnam.

Everyone knows the United States cannot remain in Afghanistan indefinitely. However, the unexpected change of U.S. command in Afghanistan and the arrival of Gen. David Petraeus provide one last chance to do counterinsurgency right.

Obama's troop “surge” will come fully online only by late August. Petraeus has already squeezed Karzai into endorsing a program for reintegrating low- and mid-level Taliban into society and a plan to train village self-defense forces.

Can the general persuade local Afghans to stand up against the Taliban? Maybe. Can he persuade Karzai to devolve more powers — and channel more international aid funds — to local officials? Possibly.

And can he persuade Karzai to clean up his act, and that of his brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, whose corruption has undercut the long-awaited offensive in Kandahar? Perhaps. “Petraeus' main activity in Iraq,” said Kilcullen, “was to meet with (President Nouri al) Maliki every night, coercing, persuading, until he did the right thing.” No doubt he will try the same with Karzai.

Given the lack of good alternatives, the least bad is to stop talking about deadlines and give the general a fair shot.

Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Readers may write to her at: Philadelphia Inquirer, P.O. Box 8263, Philadelphia, PA 19101, USA, or by e-mail at trubin@phillynews.com.

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