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Updated Thursday, March 11, 2010 10:13 am TWN, By Robert Karniol, The Straits Times/Asia News Network

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Substance still lacking on nuke curbs

Nord points out that a fundamental change of attitude by the current U.S. administration is, perhaps, the most encouraging signal. On top of that, the United Nations Security Council, meeting on Sept 24, had most of the permanent members saying good things on nuclear disarmament, the need for new arms control treaties and the CTBT entry into force. But substance is so far lacking.

“Nothing of what was promised last year has been delivered yet, and the (U.S.-Russia) Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty follow-up is still not fully agreed. The CTBT has not been ratified by Washington, and negotiations on a Fissile Material Treaty are stalled,” said Nord.

Beyond these issues, the international community continues to await signs of a diminished role for nuclear weapons. Russia has mulled over increasing their operational role and Britain is replacing its four Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines to extend London's nuclear arsenal at least until the 2040s. Then there is the Obama administration's congressionally mandated NPR, which will define Washington's nuclear policy for the next five to 10 years.

Speaking last spring in Prague, President Barack Obama called for “an end to Cold War thinking” and outlined an ambitious agenda to transform U.S. nuclear weapons policy. “We will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy,” he stated.

The NPR, intended to fulfill this vision, was originally due for release on Dec 1 but nothing was seen. A revised deadline passed on March 1, and officials are now saying it should appear before next month. The delay, U.S. news reports suggest, is due to the President's rejection of an initial version that largely maintained the status quo.

Bryan Bender of the Boston Globe has reported that several changes are under consideration. These include the U.S. committing for the first time to a 'no first use' policy, doing away with nuclear bombers and explicitly limiting the nuclear arsenal's mission to deterring only nuclear weapons.

The aim is to match the strategy and the arsenal to current and emerging threats. And the outcome is sure to shape the 2010 NPT Review Conference, together with the global future of nuclear weapons.

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