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Updated Sunday, March 7, 2010 1:04 pm TWN, By Kwan Weng Kin, The Straits Times/Asia News Network

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Alert! Even the best warning systems can be made better

Yet throughout the first few days of that disaster when food and water were most scarce and many homes were left unguarded, there were no reports of looting or burglary.

Even the local yakuza, or Japanese mafia, chipped in to hand out food and emergency supplies to quake victims.

The Hanshin and subsequent tremors highlighted deficiencies in the nation's quake and tsunami alert systems and prompted their further refinement.

The recent earthquake in Chile was the first real test of Japan's tsunami warning system on a massive scale.

Because the quake struck thousands of kilometers away on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, it gave Japanese officials ample time to warn citizens.

But what subsequently happened showed up two major shortcomings.

One was the accuracy of the tsunami alerts.

For the first time in 17 years, the authorities issued a major tsunami warning, forecasting waves as high as 3 meters along the vulnerable north-east coast of the main Japanese island of Honshu, and asking residents living in communities bordering the Pacific Ocean in those areas to move to higher ground.

But the largest tsunami topped only 1.2 meters and most of the waves that finally reached Japanese shores were well below that.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which issued the warnings, later explained that it was obliged to consider the worst possible scenario because the huge distance between the epicenter in the Chile quake and Japan made predictions that much more difficult.

Experts said JMA's forecast should not be seen as an error and that in this business, it is always better to err on the side of caution.

The experts warned that geographical features, such as narrow inlets and undersea formations, can amplify the size of a tsunami to heights even double those predicted.

The other problem that the authorities encountered was getting residents to respond to the tsunami alerts.

Although some 1.5 million Japanese living along the Pacific coast were advised to leave their homes and seek refuge in shelters or go to higher ground, less than 10 percent of residents actually did so.

In the case of one community of about 4,000 people, the response was less than 2 percent.

JMA officials also said they had expected residents to wait for the lifting of an alert before returning to their homes.

However, many who evacuated decided to go home when the first tsunami waves that turned up on Japanese shores were found to measure less than 50 centimeters in most cases.

The largest waves measuring more than 1 meter high did not arrive until several hours after the first ones.

Even for Japan, whose alert systems are seen as the best in the world, a lot of fine-tuning and education of the public remains to be done.

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Comments

March 7, 2010 tony@

When it comes to our property, what do we expect in case of loss (hurricane, tornado, earthquake, flood, fire, etc.)? The disaster itself is news. What happens after the dust settles is the story: the aftermath shock. With a little curiosity you can mitigate that shock.

Here's something disaster workers, authorities and the public should know. Insurance policyholders, and more importantly disaster survivors, need to be informed of access to equality--basic rights and information. The internet reaches far more people than anyone would have ever imagined, though difficult to gather those willing to pause, to inspect, to further...to think on their own. And yet, much is available gratis!