Save the poor from climate change

The current Kyoto agreement, which expires in 2012, committed countries to reducing their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 percent from the 1990 level by 2008-2012. But major countries like Australia and Canada are expected to miss their targets. Many will only meet them through so-called “additional measures,” which are of dubious efficacy and subject to abuse. For example, the Clean Development Mechanism allows rich countries to invest in low-carbon projects in poor countries instead of cutting their own emissions.

The European Union, with by far the most developed climate mitigation system, will meet its Kyoto target — but not its own target of 20 percent by 2020. It expects to reach only 14 percent, which translates to a paltry 6.4 percent cut in its own emissions once you take out the “additional measures.”

These failed arbitrary caps have created vested business interests that profit from subsidies and regulations — and they desperately want an extension beyond 2012. The global low-carbon economy was worth nearly US$5 trillion last financial year, according to a report for the British government. And even if everyone met Kyoto targets, the result would be an insignificant dent in temperature.

Emission caps have high costs and unclear benefits. There is a better way: Enabling people to deal with a changing climate through economic growth holds a dual promise. It will allow us to address urgent problems that afflict the poor today, like malaria and hunger. And it will also empower people to deal with those problems in the future, should they get worse because of climate change.

There is a lot of discussion about the predicted effects of climate change. Will diseases like malaria rise? Will there be water and food shortages? Will extreme weather events like Hurricane Ida become more frequent?

In fact, these problems could hardly be worse for the majority of the world's people right now, simply because they are poor. Malaria kills about a million people every year. Diarrhea from dirty water kills 1.5 million children every year. The United Nations has just dropped its target of halving hunger by 2015 as the number of hungry people rises.

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