Will President Obama earn his Nobel Prize in Afghanistan?

There appears to be only one route to a measure of success in stabilizing this non-functioning country. Essentially we need to focus on policies that will amount to a buyout of those elements in Afghanistan who might be convinced to treat the U.S. other than as an occupying force or target of attack. This means identifying and negotiating with warlords and even enemy groups who have interests to defend and might be persuaded that it is in their best interests to fend off a Taliban takeover.

The billions of dollars spent in Afghanistan can be put to better use than providing more targets for insurgents to shoot at. An additional 40,000 American troops should not be necessary to identify and fund Afghans to do their own fighting. If we do not put limits on our involvement in nation building tasks that appear to be hopeless, the morass we are in is only likely to lead to an increasing commitment to futility in a land where our troops cannot be sustained.

This is not to recommend any immediate drawdown, but a more realistic policy of doing only what we can with the resources we have already committed. Even if that means that more territory will fall under the control of the Taliban, it does not necessarily mean that their capability for terrorism will increase. More likely the Taliban will become the targets if Afghan towns can muster the determination to protect their own interests.

We routed the Taliban in about 100 days when we went in after 9/11. Nearly eight years later we should be learning that remaking Afghanistan in our own democratic image is not a realistic aspiration. Nor is it necessary to protect our vital interests. We can only help the Afghans protect themselves if they are willing to do so.

Pakistan has come to realize that preventing a Taliban takeover of the Swat Valley and South Waziristan is a vital national interest, and the military has been sent into both areas this year. Afghanistan does not have an effective military. That means we should be focusing on helping local militias who might offer the prospects of regional regimes less offensive than the Taliban.

We will not be able to build a real country in Afghanistan at any reasonable cost. Nor can we expect to find genuine partners in this lawless country. Stabilization will not come unless the Afghans do it themselves, and that might well mean numerous brutal regimes in a rather large land that is a country far more in name than in deed.

There is no good choice for President Obama. If history is any guide, expanding the war appears to offer even less likelihood of an unpalatable peace than dealing with the Taliban. President Obama should hope the Pakistani push to quell the Taliban there has an effect in Afghanistan, and tell his generals to select limited strategic goals that might be reached with the troops and resources on the ground now.

Goldsmith is a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan's Kaohsiung Office, and author of “Jade Phoenix,” a prize-winning novel of 1970s Taiwan that is offered in a Far East edition by Bookman Books Ltd. in Taipei. Goldsmith can be reached at syd.goldsmith@gmail.com.

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