Burma's ethno-political conflicts will continue

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimated that 10,000 to 30,000 people have fled to China since the tensions flared up on August 8, when the Burmese army raided the home of Peng Jiashen, the Kokang armed leader, in northern Shan state.

The consequences of confrontation between the two groups have spilled over the international border. The affected country is none other than the military junta's closest ally, China, a country that maintains robust economic ties with Burma.

“China hopes Burma ... properly deal with its domestic issue to safeguard the regional stability in the China-Myanmar border area,” said the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman, Jiang Yu, on August 28. The statement is unusual for China, who has usually defended Burma in the face of international criticisms.

There are two important concerns for the Beijing government. First, the victims who have fled to the Yunnan province are mostly of ethnic Chinese origin or Chinese nationals; second, Beijing sees skirmishes along the border are threatening the harmony and stability of Yunnan province.

The statement, however, should not be taken as a change of China's foreign policy toward Burma. Beijing will continue to maintain its bilateral relationship with Naypyidaw intact. The Burmese military junta is also unlikely to part ways with communist China because of such border skirmishes.

The MNDAA, which demands autonomy, rejected the military junta's proposal to join its armed cadres to the Border Guard Force. The proposal has been rejected by many other ceasefire groups, and the issue has become a political headache for the Burmese military junta.

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