Looking beyond government rhetoric for Burma’s 2010 poll

If the NLD is barred from election or says the party chooses not to participate, the political scenario beyond the 2010 election could even become murkier. While the new government will be busy with its own agendas, the NLD will continue to lobby the international community to recognize the 1990 election results.

The 2010 election will bring a transition in Burma, but the new government will still be directly or indirectly under the military. One other significant implication is that the result of 1990 general election will become a bygone history.

As usual, the international community will send mixed responses of the election outcome. While most Western nations will not or perhaps only reluctantly recognize the result, many Asian governments will welcome it as a positive step toward democracy.

It is these conflicting approaches that have given the military generals a political breathing space. Sanctions versus engagements and or appeasements by the international community are responsible for the survival of the military regime.

One must not, however, believe that successful implementation of the State Peace and Development Council’s seven-step roadmap will bring an end to the decades-old political problems of Burma.

We will continue to see the simmering political turmoil in the country. The military generals are indifferent to and even anathema to any concept of federalism, which has been the basic demand of the country’s ethnic nationalities, other than the Burmese.

A long-lasting solution to Burma’s problems needs the sincerity, honesty and the participation of all ethnic groups. Different ethnic groups should be brought into confidence, and their legitimate demands should be looked into. In sum, this process of democratization must have an inclusive approach.

Burma’s political landscape could still be dramatically changed before and after the 2010 general election, provided that the international community steps up to embark on a coordinated action using a “carrot and stick” approach.

Meanwhile, the capability of the military junta should not be undermined. The regime has taken pride in having one of the largest armies in the region, with over 400,000 personnel. The military is also well protected by the U.N. Security Council’s veto structure.

If the international community is sincere and serious about finding a solution to Burma’s political problems, it should take actions that would make a difference. There are ways to bring down or convince the military generals.

Military intervention, a model of six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear stand-off, and the U.N. Security Council Resolution will be some of the swiftest, if not most effective, tools to bring democratic change in Burma. However, none of the above is likely to happen in the near future.

If no realistic action is on the agenda, the international community should look beyond the 2010 election and start planning for new policies and strategies to be pursued under a new military-controlled government.

Nehginpao Kipgen is the General Secretary of U.S.-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com), and a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Burma (1947-2004).

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