Looking beyond government rhetoric for Burma’s 2010 poll

The international community’s political rhetoric, without any substantive action, has emboldened the military generals to advance their seven-step roadmap toward a “disciplined and flourishing democracy,” slowly but steadily.

It was unsurprising to see the lukewarm reaction of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon toward a largely symbolic petition submitted to him by 112 former world leaders, asking him to visit Burma in the wake of rampant arrests in recent weeks and months. The Dec. 3 petitioners include Jimmy Carter and Tony Blair, among others.

Ban, out of frustration, and through his spokesperson Michele Montas, responded to the letter by saying: “....will not be able to do so without reasonable expectations of a meaningful outcome, which is what we have been saying all along....”

What could that paper tiger achieve, anyway? Had the same letter been sent by the same number of incumbent world leaders, it could have better leverage. The move was an encouraging sign, but will have a very minimal impact, if not none at all. It will be more efficacious if the 112 world leaders, rather, convince their own governments to take pragmatic actions in line with what the U.N. chief was asked to do.

It is the U.N. Security Council that can initiate effective action that the offices of the Secretary General would implement, not vice versa. Ban Ki-moon sees the limitations his good offices can play in the absence of any enforcement mechanism.

If Ban were to go to Burma without having to achieve any substantive results, he could demean the Secretary General’s office. His basic demands, such as the release of political prisoners and initiation of dialogue with the opposition groups, have not materialized.

Instead of listening to repeated calls for the release of political prisoners, the military authority in recent weeks has handed down long prison terms to anyone seen to be a disturbance to the upcoming 2010 election. On the other hand, the military was sending yet another clear message to the international community. Senior General Than Shwe was seen bragging about the 15-year existence of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) and its growing 24.6 million members.

On the fourth day of the association’s 15th anniversary on November 29, Senior General Than Shwe was heard saying: “....plans are well underway to see to the remaining steps including the 2010 transition work program. So, it is fair to say that the future of the State structure is certain to materialize.”

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