Why India shifts its policy on Burma

It was the 1988 uprising which brought India significantly into the Burmese politics. This was the time when Burmese people contemplated bringing down the military regime.

The failed uprising forced hundreds of refugees across the international border into India. From 1988 to 1992, India’s policy vacillated between support for democracy movement and diplomatic isolation.

The P.V. Narasimha Rao’s (1991-1996) “Look East” policy basically changed India’s foreign policy toward Burma. The dramatic policy shift, however, happened during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s (1998-2004) administration.

There were two major factors responsible for India’s policy shift: (i) to counterweight the strategic influence of the People’s Republic of China; and (ii) to deal with insurgency problems in the Northeast India. Economic interest also contributed to it. Of the two, countering China’s regional influence remains to be the number one concern for India. Having experienced a bitter war with China in 1962, India feels insecure and threatened when China’s influence is broadened.

China-Burma bilateral trade hit US$2.057 billion in 2007, up 40.9 percent compared with 2006. China’s exports to Burma took US$1.686 billion, up 39.6 percent, while its import from Burma stood US$371 million, up 46.9 percent. China enjoyed a trade surplus of US$1.315 billion.

Similarly, India’s exports to Burma in 2007-2008 amounted to about US$185 million, while its imports from Burma were valued at around US$810 million. In addition to the Tamu-Kalay-Kalewa highway upgrade, India has made investments in projects such as energy and gas exploration. Most recent India’s assistance was the US$200 million project in IT program.

All these moves and counter-moves are the direct result of scrambling for power by the two Asian powers. India, at least for now, sees engaging with the military regime an effective means to narrowing the influence of China.

Another important factor for India’s foreign policy shift was due to the rise of insurgency problems in the restive Northeast India. About 20,000 insurgents from different groups of Northeast India have bases in Burma, mostly in the Northwestern part Sagaing Division.

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