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A jab at bird flu prevention

Health ministers from most of the world gathered this weekend in Egypt to plan against bird flu, with the U.N. saying the threat of a deadly global pandemic is as high as ever and a future vaccine as important as ever. Science is usually the biggest hurdle in vaccine development, but this time it’s politics, with samples being held hostage by Indonesia.

The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic killed more people than World War I, between 20 and 40 million people around the world. The World Bank estimates a new pandemic could kill up to 71 million people and cost US$3 trillion. Researchers must therefore get hold of every weapon in the arsenal if they are to prevent it.

Indonesia is vital to this research. The World Health Organization says at least 53 types of H5N1 bird flu viruses have appeared in humans and chickens in the country, meaning that any global pandemic is most likely to start there. Vaccine development companies are therefore keen to get their hands on samples of viruses, which are the key to a vaccine that could save millions of lives.

The Indonesian government knows this and can smell an opportunity. At negotiations at the World Health Organization, health minister Siti Fadilah Supari insisted that, in return for sharing virus samples, foreign vaccine companies should subsidize manufacturing capacity in Indonesia; guarantee stockpiles for Indonesians; pay significant royalties to Indonesia and transfer to local Indonesian producers their cutting-edge technologies.

Although anti-corporate activists will applaud her demands, everyone else should be very scared. While Indonesia legitimately worries about the availability of vaccines in the event of a pandemic, the current generation of vaccines are unlikely to deal with a future virus that causes a pandemic. Stockpiling current vaccines would therefore be futile.

According to U.N. influenza coordinator David Nabarro, most of the focus has to date been on the H5N1 virus, but “any influenza virus could cause a pandemic.” It is therefore vital that the private sector engages is as much research and development as possible before any outbreak.

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