Rogue entities still pose risks to U.S.

A top Russian Air Force general this spring claimed that Venezuela could host Russian long-range bombers. This follows the visit of Russian bombers and a small flotilla to Venezuela last year. Cuba was mentioned as a possible home to Russian planes as well. Russia is also looking at reestablishing its Cold War naval base in Syria and is discussing basing rights in Libya and Yemen to forward-deploy warships. Russian strategic bombers are operating widely from bases across Russia, and some have conducted flybys near U.S. Navy aircraft carriers.

In our own hemisphere, Venezuela, led by stormy president Hugo Chavez, has been involved in a notable military buildup that is seemingly aimed at exerting regional hegemony. With one of Latin America's largest defense budgets, Venezuela has purchased as much as US$4 billion in Russian arms, including fighters, attack helicopters, and assault weapons, and reportedly has signed contracts with Moscow to build nuclear reactors in Venezuela, since other regional powers have shunned cooperation due to concerns about possible nuclear proliferation.

The biggest challenge to American military preeminence will come from China. Beijing's unprecedented military buildup has included double-digit increases in defense spending for more than a decade. China now has the world's second-largest defense budget, and Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has observed that Beijing's military modernization is “very much focused on the United States.”

Beijing is professionalizing the People's Liberation Army and has focused its defense budget on asymmetric and power-projection forces such as its navy and ballistic missiles. While long focused on Taiwan, China is evaluating its forces for operations beyond East Asia. It has one of the world's most active ship- and sub-marine-building programs, and an aircraft carrier program is almost a given. A new anti-ship ballistic missile reportedly can target ships at sea - a threat never before faced by our Navy.

The central argument that the United States can reduce its defense budget, especially its investment in next-generation systems, because it is unlikely to face threats from any peer competitors in the next 20 years is clearly specious. Ambitious rising nations will be sure to challenge the United States militarily if they sense decline or weakness.

While Iraq, Afghanistan, and al-Qaeda are the wolves closest to the sled, they are not the only ones out there. Now is not the time for complacency about the threats looming on the horizon or the need to invest in a strong national defense.

Peter Brookes is Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Chung Ju-Yung Fellow in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.

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