Polar politics heats up over security - PART III

So, while all the countries concerned have promised to allow diplomacy, science and international law to resolve how the potentially rich Arctic should be divvied up in terms of sovereignty, it is not clear it will end up that way. For instance, while the cold front that has descended on East-West relations over the Russia-Georgia conflict may not last forever, issues that appear nongermane certainly could get in the way of bilateral or multilateral cooperation. Indeed, even before the Georgia dust-up, an expert group expressed concern about the possibility of the Arctic becoming increasingly militarized as the global demand for energy and raw materials skyrockets, overwhelming well-intentioned diplomatic efforts.

In its report, the USGS called the Arctic region “the largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on Earth.” With little reason to doubt it, that assertion will not be ignored by the major powers that ring the Arctic. With the surge in energy prices being driven by sluggish new production, continuing limits on global refining capability, jittery energy markets and rapidly increasing demand from the likes of India and China, countries are likely to hedge their bets in the Arctic.

U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Thad Allen, during a recent visit to Alaska, said in a radio interview: “For the last 20 years, the conventional view for policymakers in Washington is that any activity in the Arctic is basically related to science.”

Those days are gone — probably for good. Indeed, Washington is expected to shortly issue a presidential national security directive on the Arctic — arguably the first major policy statement on the issue in more than a decade.

But it will take more than a presidential policy statement to address the challenges of the Arctic. More resources will have to be devoted to the task, including increasing the number of U.S. ice breakers, which stands at a paltry three superannuated ships.

The U.S. has a lot at stake in the Arctic. Now is not the time for getting a case of cold feet in projecting American power to protect and advance our national interests in the north.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense who also served in the Navy, with the CIA and on Capitol Hill.

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