Afghanistan on the edge of abyss -- PART I

Insurgent and terrorist attacks are at an all-time high, and rising — they are up 30 percent from 2007. Deaths of U.S. and NATO soldiers are also at record levels, already exceeding last year’s total.

By some estimates, the central government may control as little as 30 percent to 50 percent of the vast country.

Moreover, issues of governance (especially competence at the local level and widespread corruption), the rule of law, respect for human rights, hunger and the availability of basic human services are still problems.

Making matters worse, the drug trade may account for up to half of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product of US$8 billion — and international political, military and economic aid and investment have been insufficient to deal with the wide-ranging challenges.

A lawless, failed state that could host a range of bad actors is a distinct possibility.

For their part, Afghans are frustrated, too. An outcry has erupted over accidental civilian casualties attributed to coalition military operations — which the insurgency has been quick to seize upon for propaganda purposes.

The JCS chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, recently told Congress that “a new, more comprehensive strategy” is needed in Afghanistan that “covers both sides of the border.” The other side of the border in this case: Pakistan.

Indeed, while Afghanistan, an ethnically diverse country the size of Texas, still faces an array of difficult obstacles, perhaps the biggest hurdle to peace and stability comes not from within, but from without.

Pakistan problem

What happens in neighboring Pakistan, especially in the tribal areas along the border, may have as much of an effect on Afghanistan’s future as anything that happens in Afghanistan itself.

Pakistan, a teeming country of 160 million people, is, by some measures, in peril itself. The Muslim state is beleaguered by religious fervor, militancy, poverty and economic woes.

Unbeknownst to many, it is one of the world’s most terror-afflicted countries, as evidenced by the horrific attack on the Marriott hotel in Islamabad in September.

Indeed, the Taliban and al-Qaida have taken refuge in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the 1,500-mile Afghanistan-Pakistan border, from where they plot, train and launch operations.

CIA Director Michael Hayden said this year that the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area is a “clear and present danger to Afghanistan, to Pakistan and to the West in general, and to the United States in particular.”

Indeed, a number of plots, including attacks in the United Kingdom and the foiled summer 2006 liquid-explosives conspiracy against airliners flying from Britain to the United States and Canada, were hatched by al-Qaida in Pakistan.

Moreover, U.S. intelligence has been confident for some time that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, are located in Pakistan’s unruly border regions, under the protection of tribal leaders.

Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense.

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