Ankara understands the last thing Washington or Baghdad wants — or needs, especially when things seem to be going better in Iraq — is a problem like Turkish forces pouring across the border.

While U.S. and Iraqi leaders have been cautious about saying what they might do if Turkey invades, Turkish forces (NATO’s second largest) could unintentionally attack U.S. troops — or meet fierce resistance from local Kurds or the Iraqi army.

Such ugly possibilities are a real incentive for the United States and Iraq to do something. Ankara, is demanding meaningful action and progress on eliminating the PKK in Iraq , not just more promises. (Turkey and Iraq recently signed a counterterror cooperation pact.)

In addition, the Turks were furious that our House of Representatives planned to take up a nonbinding resolution on the massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during World War I. Ankara has threatened to close Incirlik airbase to us — a threat that seems to have lead House leaders to back off. If Ankara does cut off access, the Pentagon can reroute the large volume of cargo and fuel bound for U.S. troops in Iraq — but the possibility of a large-scale military action ratchets up the pressure astronomically.

Of course, the Turkish threats could be all bluff and bluster, especially by a ruling party that is looking to boost its sagging public support with a little jingoism. Then again, why should we take a chance when so much is at stake?

Now, the PKK isn’t just in Iraq. Ankara has a PKK problem on its side of the border, too. But Washington and Baghdad must do their best to close PKK camps in Iraq, eliminating the need for Turkish cross-border operations.

The United States and the Europeans could also help Turkey with the PKK through more robust intelligence collection and sharing. (Both the European Union and the U.S. State Department list the PKK as a terrorist organization.)

NATO generals can encourage restraint with the powerful Turkish military brass, too. And Brussels — while doing more itself to dismantle PKK networks in Europe — should remind Ankara of repercussions of military action on its long-held goal of joining the EU.

Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail. But considering Turkish politics, strained Ankara-Washington relations and the PKK’s relentless terror campaign, a major Turkish incursion into Iraq could become a reality.

Heritage Foundation Senior Fellow Peter Brookes is a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense. He can be reached at peterbrookes@heritage.org.

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