National identities inform policy and interests towards Pyongyang

China has long seen its national interests served by the status quo on the Korean Peninsula. According to a Cold War perspective about strategic balance and a post-Cold War emphasis on internal development, Beijing prioritized keeping the Kim regime alive for the sake of maintaining a buffer state and preventing North Korea's problems from spilling over China's border. While Beijing remains fixated on the costs of uncertainty and change, the chances of it “getting tough” with Pyongyang are low. However, China's growing identity gap with North Korea shows signs of changing the way China views its own interests. Political debates inside China now ask whether Beijing underestimates the costs of a nuclear-armed North Korea that threatens regional stability, the reputational costs of being the largest backer of the Kim regime, and the economic costs of a relationship where North Korea takes much from China but respects China little. At the same time, there are questions about whether China overestimates the usefulness of a buffer state, the challenge of North Korean refugees fleeing across the border and the chances of international military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

The China of today is not the China that came to Pyongyang's aid during the Korean War; its national identity has evolved over decades of rapid development and international integration. Given the country that China wants to become, the costs of maintaining an ally relationship with North Korea may come to surpass the costs of abandoning it.

Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests reveal not only North Korea's nationalism, but also test how changing national identities in South Korea and China shape strategic interests and ultimately security policy. The extent to which Seoul and Beijing cooperate with Washington and Tokyo hangs in the balance.

Leif-Eric Easley is a Ph.D. candidate at Harvard University's Department of Government, a Visiting Fellow at the University of Southern California's Korean Studies Institute and a Kelly Fellow with the Pacific Forum CSIS.

1|2

SharePrintEmail

Write a Comment

Enter your comments - 3000 characters max

Type in image code

Submit

 Receive China Post promos Respond to this email