Multilateralism, not multipolarity should be goal

The Chinese foreign policy discourse about multipolarity goes back to Mao Zedong’s call for developing countries to rise up against capitalist nations. During the Cold War, multipolarity provided a competing vision to the power politics of the Soviet Union and United States. As the Cold War ended, arguments about multipolarity were aimed against the lone superpower’s post-Tiananmen efforts to “contain” China.

Even after relations between China and the United States improved, multipolarity remained an important concept for advocating the “democratization of international relations” (guojiguanxi minzhuhua). China’s democratic international order would place legitimacy with the United Nations, where China wields great influence.

China’s Foreign Ministry Web site explains the theory that “multipolarization on the whole helps weaken and curb hegemonism and power politics, serves to bring about a just and equitable new international political and economic order and contributes to world peace and development.”

Polarity has been an obsession of realist studies of international relations for decades, and there is still no consensus on what global configuration of power is most stable. Factors other than polarity — such as international institutional constraints and who wields power for what — matter a great deal. But much history and many scholars suggest that all else being equal, a multipolar world verges on war as major countries compete for advantage.

Multilateralism appears a safer bet for curbing power politics and contributing to peace and development. The relative power concerns of multipolarity imply zero-sum competition, whereas multilateralism recognizes the challenges and opportunities of global interdependence. When countries act upon shared interests and put aside differences to address transnational issues, better policy outcomes are possible. Of course, multilateral talk is easier than multilateral results. Nonetheless, a significant change is underway in China’s foreign policy as the discourse of multilateralism overtakes that of multipolarity.

A search in Chinese reveals that “multipolarity” (duojihua) is still featured on the Chinese Foreign Ministry Web site, but references to “multilateralism” (duobian zhuyi) are increasing in official papers and speeches. Meanwhile, a full text search of Chinese academic and policy journals from 2000 to 2007 shows a gradual decline in discussion of multipolarity and a dramatic increase for multilateralism.

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