Lessons of lost U.S.-Taiwan trust

Fourth, the strategic visions of Taiwan and the United States began to diverge. Both Washington and Taipei realize that cross-strait relations are an important test of China’s “peaceful rise” and becoming a “responsible stakeholder.” U.S. policymakers believe this test is in progress and want to see China succeed to everyone’s benefit. In contrast, the current leadership in Taipei appears convinced China will fail the test, making consolidation of Taiwan’s independence an urgent priority. A preponderance of shared interests and values suggest that Taiwan and U.S. strategic visions will re-converge, but not without due effort.

Future combinations of policymakers in Taipei and Washington will take lessons from these trials. Even then, restoring mutual trust will not be easy. America’s attention will continue to be absorbed elsewhere. Meanwhile, as China’s power and international interdependence have grown, so too has the weight of its preferences in the diplomatic calculations of other countries. Taipei is frustrated not only by this political disadvantage, but also by how Beijing’s heightened confidence has allowed it to show restraint and employ soft power.

As a result, political precondition and missile-wielding China has appeared reasonable, while defense-oriented democratic Taiwan is seen as recklessly indulging in identity politics.

The greatest challenge for the next Taiwan president will be stabilizing Taiwanese identity. Key for restoring U.S.-Taiwan trust and improving Taiwan’s standing will be the next government’s ability to build domestic consensus for a strategic vision that advances interests (international competitiveness, secure autonomy) before desires (international reputation, formal independence).

Political parties need to offer different ideas for the future rather than different versions of the past. Policy debates should be informed by facts about results rather than accusations of insufficient love of Taiwan. Taiwan identity needs to increasingly focus on what is good about Taiwan rather than what is bad about China, and what Taiwan contributes to the world rather than what the world owes Taiwan.

Taiwan’s identity will never be static or uniform; identities are naturally dynamic and contested. What is needed is wise leadership to restore trust in government and chart a trajectory endorsed by an inclusive majority of the Taiwan people. The upcoming presidential election can be a vehicle for stabilizing Taiwan identity, and thus a significant step in improving trust with the United States.

Leif-Eric Easley is a Ph.D. candidate at Harvard University’s Department of Government, a member of the Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders program, and a visiting scholar at UCLA.

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