Upgrading U.S.-Japan-S. Korea ties

Trilateral relations struggled under recent combinations of leaders. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi drew criticism from Asian neighbors for his visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine. Japan-South Korea ties were strained by disputed history texts and competing claims to the Dokdo/Takashima islets. Koizumi’s successor, Shinzo Abe, was a crusader against North Korea’s abduction of Japanese citizens and led a strong response to Pyongyang’s nuclear test — efforts that conflicted with Seoul’s softer approach. Abe also prioritized restoring Japanese national pride and appeared insensitive on historical matters such as the suffering of women under wartime sexual servitude. Fukuda, Japan’s new prime minister, has deliberately taken a more conciliatory approach.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has moved from confrontation with North Korea toward give-and-take diplomacy. Six-party talks have not met Ambassador Christopher Hill’s optimistic schedule for a complete nuclear declaration by Dec. 31. But the Bush administration has succeeded in building five-party solidarity, and its policy will likely continue into the next administration.

Against this backdrop, enter Lee Myung-bak, a pragmatic conservative who stresses the importance of South Korea’s traditional alliances. Lee will likely focus attention where he carries a mandate — on revitalizing the economy. Ten years of prioritizing engagement with North Korea under Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun had the effect of reshaping threat perceptions in South Korea, so most inter-Korean projects will likely continue under Lee, and suggestions of regime change will be nonstarters. But where Roh avoided questioning North Korea on its nuclear programs and human rights abuses, Lee’s administration promises to demand reciprocity and results.

There are, however, a number of wild cards in play before and soon after Lee takes office on Feb. 25. The Roh administration may attempt to cement further deals with North Korea to bind Lee, whose reputation will be under fire by a financial scandal investigation. There are also internal challenges for Lee’s Grand National Party — while Lee won the presidential election handily, the primary race was hard-fought and factions have yet to reconcile. In April, National Assembly elections will decide whether Lee will enjoy legislative support for his policies.

In Japan, Fukuda appears a steady hand on foreign affairs, but his cabinet could fall on unresolved government mismanagement of pensions. Also, since the opposition Democratic Party won control of the upper house, Japan’s legislature has been unable to agree on security policy. Legislation for an important anti-terrorism mission of the Japanese navy expired in November, and a bill to create a Japanese national security council was shelved in December.

Americans will soon become preoccupied with their own presidential election. The Bush administration appears to have set policy for its last year in office, but hawks will point to North Korea’s nuclear delays and South Korea’s election and see both reason and opportunity to campaign for a harder line against North Korea. It is not clear how Pyongyang will respond to mixed signals from the U.S. or the new Lee administration.

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