Soft power in cross-strait and inter-Korean relations

The strategic challenge for both Beijing and Seoul is to find the right mix in applying soft power (inclusion and persuasion) versus hard power (deterrence and coercion). When Beijing has departed from its 1995-96 missile diplomacy and moved away from making hard power threats toward Taiwan, it has enhanced Chinese soft power and overall influence. In contrast, when Seoul has downplayed hard power and accommodated the North Korean regime, Pyongyang has been enabled to undermine South Korean soft power. If the goal is to achieve greater cooperation and security by using soft power, it may be in Beijing’s interests to be increasingly flexible with Taipei, and in Seoul’s interests to be more demanding of Pyongyang.

The competitive balance of hard power has long defined cross-strait and inter-Korean relations. The embrace of soft power by national leaders is thus a reassuring development, reducing the odds of armed conflict. But a sober analysis must note that President Hu and President Roh’s recent efforts at projecting soft power may have less to do with long-term strategic benefits than with upcoming elections. The Hu government prefers to empower Ma Ying-jeou, the Taiwan presidential candidate amenable to the “one-China principle,” versus the independence-leaning candidate, Frank Hsieh. Meanwhile, the Roh administration is apparently eager for symbolic progress with North Korea to help the pro-government candidate Chung Dong-young against the opposition candidate Lee Myung-bak.

Despite the short-term motives and mixed results thus far, the accumulation and application of soft power may yet transform the security environment in East Asia. Soft power is of increasing importance in international relations, although its operability remains limited. For soft power to make a substantial difference in cross-Strait and inter-Korean relations, China will need to achieve a higher level of democratic development, and South Korea will need to elicit greater openness and reciprocity from the North Korean government.

Leif-Eric Easley is a Ph.D. candidate at Harvard University’s Department of Government, a member of the Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders program and a visiting scholar at UCLA.

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