New leaders of Asia can benefit from ‘clean slate’

The United States will hold its presidential election on Nov. 4, 2008. The outgoing Bush administration has the reputation (in some ways deservedly, in others unfairly) of being hawkish and unilateralist. The new U.S. president can shed this image, or at least avoid it long enough to make progress on a multilateral agenda. Rather than inaugurating his or her term promoting the war on terror, the next U.S. president might speak more about trade, development and transnational issues such as the environment. This is not to say that the next U.S. administration should de-emphasize security policy, but could productively focus the honeymoon period on a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. Such early multilateral achievements can garner greater international contributions for counterterrorism and help dispel misperceptions of U.S. disengagement.

While the foreign policy initiatives above would offer positive and lasting implications, the staying power of leaders usually comes down to how well they promote the economic livelihoods of their citizens. Leaders that neglect “bread and butter issues” for the sake of foreign policy or ideological pursuits do so at their own peril. However, navigating the vested interests of domestic groups to push forward socio-economic reforms usually requires leaders to gain forward momentum, which can be provided in part by early accomplishments in foreign policy.

Successes and failures in international relations are commonly over-attributed to top decision makers, producing exaggerated expectations for different policies by new leaders. Incoming administrations cannot remake the world in their first 100 days, but can use the clean slate effect to score foreign policy victories that their tarnished predecessors could not. Succeeding in this requires political preparation, a keen sense of priorities and determination to follow through. One of the benefits of democracy is how it regularly provides a fresh start. Let’s hope that new leaders in the Asia-Pacific make the best of the opportunity.

Leif-Eric Easley is a Ph.D. candidate at Harvard University’s Department of Government, a member of the Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leaders program and a visiting scholar at UCLA.

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