On win-win-win ties for U.S., Japan, China

The U.S.-Japan alliance is increasingly operative and forward-looking. The demonstrated political will for improving these international ties suggests that Tokyo, Beijing and Washington all want to see “win-win-win” trilateral relations. It is yet unclear, however, what exactly win-win-win relations would look like or how to achieve them. This article articulates the characteristics of win-win-win relations, suggests discarding old thinking about international relations, and recommends steps for strategic coordination with high standards for state behavior.

What would win-win-win relations look like?

Win-win-win relations would be broader than U.S.-Japan-China relations today, to include formal interaction on a full range of global “not just bilateral” issues. Win-win-win relations would also be deeper: all three countries would reach further into each other’s societies.

Moreover, win-win-win relations would be notably more stable. The alleviation of uncertainty and mistrust would decrease hedging behavior and associated opportunity costs, and better insulate relations from crises. Most important in terms of policy, win-win-win relations would exhibit greater international cooperation. Japan, China and the U.S. would bring combined capabilities to bear on myriad international challenges including nuclear proliferation, terrorism and environmental degradation. In addition to responding to crises and disasters, the three countries would together engage in preventive diplomacy, address demographic change, and deal with chronic transnational problems.

Discarding old thinking about international relations

To realize win-win-win relations, China, Japan and the U.S. can gradually do away with outmoded concepts of Westphalian and postwar international relations. First, the international socialization of states is not one-way. The U.S. is not the sole rule-maker or promulgator of international norms. While offering particular political and economic models, the U.S. also takes lessons from others. The international marketplace of ideas and practices is interactive and competitive, and should be a race to the top.

Second, institutions should be open and purposeful rather than closed and used for posturing. Transforming bilateral alliances should attract third parties and become nested in multilateral cooperation. Bilateral FTAs and regional blocks are less efficient than global trade liberalization under the World Trade Organization (WTO). And while focused diplomatic mechanisms such as the Six-Party Talks can yield results, excluding stakeholders from regional fora can be counterproductive.

Third, states should move away from zero-sum assumptions. Improved U.S.-China relations need not involve trade offs for U.S.-Japan relations. Increasing Chinese influence in Southeast Asia and elsewhere need not push out Japan. Improving China-South Korea relations need not come at the expense of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

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