Showdown in the South Atlantic?

Gibraltar also comes to mind.

In a recent meeting of Latin American and Caribbean states, all thirty-two members passed a resolution supporting the Argentine claim to the Falklands and calling on Britain not to drill for oil in the Falklands waters. Though Venezuela's left-wing dictator Hugo Chavez vocally backed the Argentine claim as did Brazil's Lula, so too did English speaking commonwealth countries such as Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad.

Moreover the countries meeting in Mexico decided to form a hemispheric bloc without the participation of the United States or Canada, a clear sign of Washington's slipping regional standing.

The conference “reaffirmed their backing for the Argentine Republic's legitimate rights in its sovereignty dispute with the UK” over the islands. Importantly the meeting stressed dialogue and negotiation over the Falkland's future, adding the two countries should resume talks “in order to find a just, peaceful and definitive solution” to the dispute.

Nobody except hard-line crazies in Caracas or Havana would wish to see a military showdown.

The Obama Administration has stressed neutrality in the dispute between both countries; in 1982 during the Falkland War, Ronald Reagan backed Britain to the ire of many in Latin America.

The respected English-language Buenos Aires Herald reported, “Likewise, the U.S., whose intelligence services proved critical to British military success during the short but bloody 1982 war over the Islands possession, offered Britain only tepid support. The State Department has said that it took no position on the sovereignty claims of either country.”

Though the Falkland/Malvinas has seen quickly-forgotten resolutions in the U.N. General Assembly, it's highly unlikely the issue will come before the Security Council as the UK's deft diplomacy would likely block it or if it ever got so far, has a veto and would unabashedly use it. While Argentina has renounced the use of force in the current crisis, there's the danger that Hugo Chavez's political alchemy could manipulate Christina Fernandez into an incremental confrontation with Britain.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. jjmcolumn@att.net

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