Taking a look at the year ahead

Brewing revolt in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Teheran leadership continues to snub the international community, and its embryonic nuclear program poses a clear and present danger to both Israel and the wider Middle East. The Obama administration has showed perhaps fatal indecision in bottling the nuclear genie. Content to contain the Atomic Ayatollahs through possibly tougher U.N. sanctions (at what price to get Russia and mainland China on board with a tough U.N. resolution?), the world could confront a nuclear weapons-armed Iran in a few years.

However, events work in strange ways. While the confrontational regime of President Ahmadinejad appears strong, internal discord, fueled by massive corruption of the ruling mullahcracy, could see a brewing anti-Islamic revolt spill over into the streets. Is another Iranian revolution on the horizon?

Venezuela

Strongman Hugo Chavez pursues the path towards wider dictatorship. Chavez has used, and indeed squandered, his country's petroleum wealth, envisioning a grandiose vision of a socialist Bolivarian Republic in Latin America. Assaults on political freedoms and property rights are common. Having attended Chavez press conferences, I concede that as with many dictators, he has an uncanny, if slippery, “charm,” perhaps lubricated by oil. Venezuela's drift towards dictatorship presents a clear hemispheric danger.

Europe

Ukraine will hold a vital election in mid-January. The pro-Russian stalking horse will likely win. Thus five years after the optimistic Orange Revolution, it appears that Ukraine may re-enter the traditional Russian sphere of influence. Ukraine has been bullied by Moscow's “energy policies,” and the elections would be a step towards validating political reintegration. Hungary, on the other hand, is slated to oust an immensely unpopular and corrupt Socialist government in parliamentary elections slated for April. Still, there's a nervous concern in eastern Europe concerning American intentions.

Green Blackmail

The Global Warming lobby has morphed into a secular religion where seemingly sober scientific predictions are taken as unquestioned fact. Even after the crisis of the Copenhagen Conference, the Global Warming mantra has become a near embedded hysteria among many. I can't help but recall the dire predictions of the feared Y2K global computer crisis a decade ago. Could global warning be the new Y2K?

Despite these challenges, let me wish my readers a happy, healthy and prosperous 2010!

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. jjmcolumn@att.net.

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