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New 'faces' in U.N. Security Council

Looking at the new list from my index of political freedoms gain-loss analysis, a few points emerge. Bosnia and Croatia are clearly Western-leaning, so the status quo holds.

Brazil replaces Costa Rica. While both governments are pro-West, Brazil is a player, who while occasionally prone to surprise us, should be just fine. As an emerging economy, energy giant, and member of the G-20 Group of industrial states, Brazil can be expected to more openly lobby for Security Council reform. And recently Rio de Janeiro won its bid to host the 2016 Olympics in a move seen as a growing positive profile for the Portuguese-speaking South American giant.

The new African members represent a positive development too.

Both Nigeria and Gabon are status quo petro-states that have sensible and realistic international behavior. Libya leaving the Council presents a net gain.

Equally in Asia. Lebanon is a moderate Middle East state that is sadly under the shadow of Syria and Iran. This Council membership could provide a good political safety insurance policy. There is a large U.N. peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) on Lebanon's territory, (along with destabilizing Hezbollah's militia), a legacy of this small country's complicated history and geographic neighborhood.

Although it has moderated its positions in recent years, having Vietnam off the Council is no great loss. Though Vietnam has allowed some social and economic changes, the political regime remains authoritarian and not a force for freedom.

Overall the Council's composition for the upcoming year 2010 presents a positive tilt; two regional powers Brazil and Nigeria join the membership and will sit alongside Japan.

But before anybody thinks the annual ritual for Security Council selection is just a polite diplomatic minuet of musical chairs, Germany has already put its name in consideration and is presenting its noteworthy credentials for the upcoming 2011-2012 session.

Membership at the decision-making Security Council is naturally about national status but more important being a global player.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. jjmcolumn@att.net

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