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Updated Saturday, September 12, 2009 12:27 am TWN, By John J. Metzler, Special to The China Post

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Iran's nuclear issue sees more drama

The Obama Administration, despite initial optimism in dealing with this Charter member of Axis of Evil, feels it may be getting scammed by Ahmadinejad. The West Europeans, while decidedly nervous over a nuclear Iran, would just like to squeeze in a few more lucrative business deals before the next slap on the wrist. And neighboring Arab states are just plain scared.

The Bush Administration had planned for a missile defense shield which would guard Europe and America from rogue nuclear states; precisely the threat posed by Iran and North Korea The system based in Poland and the Czech Republic, both NATO members, nonetheless emerged as a political lightning rod for Russia. There are hints that Washington may quietly shelve the anti-missile program, in exchange for Moscow's placing serious political pressure on Iran.

While Russia has rebuffed the missile defense plans in Poland, ironically it is Russia who also risks the wrath of Iran's mendacity. Why? In the worldview of Islamic extremists, Russia has oppressed Muslims in many places such as Chechnya and thus along with Europe, and needless to say Israel, is on Teheran's short list for hatred.

One of the newest players remains Benjamin Netanyahu's new government in Israel, which is after all Islamic Iran's ultimate and unquestioned target. Though Israel has the capacity and military expertise to locate and probably destroy multiple nuclear research and development sites in Iran, the political blowback from such an operation would certainly reach global hurricane force. Israel may be willing to take the risk.

Iran is in a race to acquire a nuclear weapon, a political game changer for the Mid-East.

The upcoming General Assembly will provide perhaps the last-ditch venue for diplomats and leaders to meet, discuss, and defuse the problem.

While Iran has predictably rejected compromise, this does not mean that President Ahmadinejad may not play the time-honored Persian game of protracted negotiations which will give the chimera of reaching a long-sought political breakthrough.

Will the West, in a bid to get a diplomatic deal; talk tough and then move the goal posts again?

The tale can take many more twists.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. Contact jjmcolumn@att.net.

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