Big challenge ahead for Iraq now

Indeed what was to have been that “defining issue” of last year's U.S. presidential election and a still potent political flashpoint, has largely faded from the headlines.

To be sure the perilous economic situation and a spate of foreign policy crises from Iran to nuclear North Korea have grabbed attention.

Yet as American forces in Iraq prepare to pull out of the cities, the besieged Mid-East state will increasingly have to stand on its own — without the American security training wheels.

Iraq is still recovering from the political and economic trauma of the Saddam Hussein dictatorship, the 2003 war, and the ensuing insurgency.

Though the U.S. military surge in 2007 proved successful, there's still a long road ahead to ensure enduring security.

A recently released U.N. report while praising “encouraging signs of progress,” and conceding “although the overall security situation in Iraq has improved since 2008, the recent spike in indiscriminate and violent mass attacks continues to cause unacceptably high civilian casualties, demonstrating that important security challenges remain.”

The document adds, “Although there has been a demonstrable reduction in insurgent activity across the country in the past 12 months, there are still armed groups determined to incite sectarian violence and undermine public confidence in the government's capability to provide effective security.” Iraq's U.N. Ambassador Hamid a-Bayati in a Security Council statement said, “between March and May 2009 witnessed a decline in the number of acts of violence by 76 percent as compared to the same period in 2008; an improvement confirming the development of the Iraqi security forces capability and the significant decline in the capabilities of terrorist groups.”

But in the nervous countdown to the handover, bombings have spiked and over a hundred innocent civilians have been killed or maimed. As Iraqi security forces carry the brunt of urban patrols and security, there could be a surge in militant attacks. U.S. troop numbers, only marginally reduced from 142,000 in January to 133,000 today, still will be able to assist the Iraqi forces in emergencies but with far less tactical flexibility.

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