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Updated Saturday, May 30, 2009 10:07 am TWN, By John J. Metzler , United Nation Correspondent North Korea creating major worriesLed by the reclusive and increasingly frail “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il (66), the DPRK has all the trappings of a communist state, but with the bizarre political cult of personality through which Kim rules. The DPRK dictatorship is a blend of totalitarianism combined with traditional Korean shamanism and ample doses of Stalinist terror. Political succession to the ailing Kim Jong-il is in the wind, and points to a short list from his family, but could just as likely come from the powerful military where many generals are bridling under his rigid but reckless rule. While all of North Korea's neighbors have serious concerns over this nuclear loose cannon on the deck of the DPRK ship of state, Japan probably has the most to fear and thus Tokyo's diplomacy remains laser-focused on non-proliferation and sanctions. Moreover Lee Myung-bak's government in Seoul holds no illusions over the forces arrayed just forty miles from South Korea's prosperous capital. When the North Koreans first tested a nuclear device in 2006, curiously coinciding with very day Ban Ki-moon a South Korean diplomat was elected U.N. Secretary General, the Security Council slapped Pyongyang with a tough resolution, number 1718. Naturally the North has continued its proliferation and provocations. While the world community, including both Russia and mainland China remain increasingly nervous over the North's actions, how do you stop them short of military action? The Six Party Talks which comprise both South and North Korea as well as neighboring China, Japan, Russia and the U.S. provide a negotiating framework for non-proliferation. The multinational diplomatic formula favored during the Bush Administration, and still an option for Obama, has nonetheless produced painfully little progress. North Korea calculates it can get away with it. Russian statements on the nuclear test underscore its unease over the growing danger from this one-time client state. Moscow appears to have no illusions over what is happening now in the North or its potential flashpoint danger for the Russian Far East. The People's Republic of China however, thus holds the key. Beijing realizes that the DPRK's rogue regime is highly destabilizing regionally and bad for business throughout East Asia. Combine that with internal instability which could send refugees streaming north into Jilin and Liaoning provinces, is something PRC policy planners fear. If Beijing wanted to make the difference they could; China supplies half of DPRK's food and 90 percent of oil supplies. The PRC could pull the plug on Pyongyang. But it won't likely do so. John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. Comments May 31, 2009 valwayne@ Reply Under Barack Obama nothing will be done about N Korea, and they know it, which is why they are stepping up their actions including ending the armistice with S Korea and putting themselves back into a state of war. And S Korea and Japan would be wise not to put too much stock into their defense treaties with the U.S. If either is attacked Obama is likely to dither at the U.N. Soon N Korea will be able to launch a nuclear tipped missile at Japan or the U.S. They will share the technology with Iran who will do the same, and who knows what that will mean for the world. That will be Obama's foreign policy legacy, or worse! June 18, 2009 jaredlrice@ This is going to end in another world war. We are all in danger while North Korea is not leashed. Hopefully the UN can come to some plan of action. We know that the Obama administration won't. |
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