Predicting the year ahead: 2009

Iraq, now far better off after the U.S. military surge, has room to build and improve. Yet, Hamas' violent incitements in Gaza will keep the pot boiling with Israel. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, via Iran's hidden hand, is poised for serious mischief. The Islamic Republic of Iran will “celebrate” the 30th anniversary of the shroud of political gloom which the mullahs pulled over once proud Persia. They will revel in their nuclear gains, and spitefully show the West that they got away with it.

Russia: Despite the neo-imperial impulses by Vladimir Putin, the good news is that the petrodollars flowing into Kremlin coffers are dwindling and cutting Russia's global clout. But watch Ukraine — it can certainly be bullied by the Bear over natural gas supplies, and moreover through political subversion from Russia. While Georgia's summer war was a tragic surprise, the chess piece on the board Putin covets remains Ukraine.

Latin America: Despite the danger of Hugo Chavez, the good news is oil prices are down which diminishes Venezuela's role. Cuba celebrates the 50th anniversary of Castro's takeover, ushering in 50 years of dictatorship. Despite this, major democratic gains have been consolidated throughout most of Latin America, including Colombia.

Humanitarian: The United Nations is simply overwhelmed with disasters ranging from famines, both natural and self-inflicted, as in Zimbabwe, as well as civil wars which haunt the African continent. Sudan's ongoing Darfur tragedy, the horrors of the Congo, and the lawlessness of Somalia are but a few cases.

U.S. Administration: All eyes are on Washington D.C. Domestic political optimism and global giddiness remains high on the verge of the Age of Obama. While many media pundits assume the new president can walk on water; possible for Canadian politicians in winter, but decidedly more difficult on the Potomac in Washington, a brewing crisis of expectations will bedevil Barack Obama.

Internecine battles inside his own Democrat dominated Congress will hamper him as much as gathering political gales internationally.

In the midst of all this, Happy New Year 2009!

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues.

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