Predicting the year ahead: 2009

Given the financial meltdown and the global economic doldrums, optimism remains in predictably short supply. So let's face the facts and let realism be our guide in viewing some key issues.

Global Economy: The Autumn 2008 Financial Meltdown has done irreparable damage to the U.S. and the world in general. The individual Wall Street crooks who in many cases created this crisis should be unceremoniously indicted, prosecuted, and punished if guilty. The economy has drifted into rocky recessionary shoals not seen since the late 1970's.

This was not a failure of free market capitalism as is so glibly stated, but the long-looming outcome of casino capitalism, fueled by play money, and marinated in a cozy relationship of gazillionaries with politicians.

Now the people are stuck with the results — and the bill. The new Democratic answer will be a re-packaged “New Deal,” which will probably, as in FDR's case in the 1930's, make matters worse. Massive profligate big government spending is certain to stoke inflationary embers and deepen the public debt. The good news is that petroleum prices have significantly fallen over last summer's highs.

Equally, the American unemployment numbers are far below Europe's.

East Asia: The story is China and China. Following the afterglow of the successful Beijing Olympics, the tough hurdles ahead are economic. Slowdown in the West (read where Chinese exports flood), means factory closings and massive unemployment on the mainland. There's no great social net to help workers either, so there's a large mass of unemployed and rootless labor shifting around China.

Citizens who were duly impressed, and politically bought off by the People's Republic's economic (or at least statistical) achievements, may now look to the political sorcerers. China's ruling Communist Party (CCP) will have to confront this dilemma and find scapegoats. Which brings us to the other China: Shall Beijing use the economic downturn to stoke nationalism and bully tactics?

The Republic of China on Taiwan is being maneuvered into a situation which threatens its freedom and sovereignty in not daring to displease the dragon.

1|2|Next Page>>

SharePrintEmail

Write a Comment

Enter your comments - 3000 characters max

Type in image code

Submit

 Receive China Post promos Respond to this email