Chen: gunslinger at a poker game

But the flyer-distribution approach offers no guarantee that President Chen’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party will beat the KMT at the polls. However, the stubborn defiance of the one-stop rule shown by the 18 local commissions has given Chen an excuse to play the part of a gunslinger at a poker game in a Western movie.

Movie goers have seen many a gunman play stud poker. His first card is dealt face down, with the other four face up. In a battle royal, he tries to bluff his opponent. But if he knows he is sure to be beaten, he overturns the poker table, forcing all 10 cards to fall on the floor of a canteen. His gun-toting pals create a melee, and he rakes in all the anted money.

Chen may have some disturbances created at polling stations. His hardcore supporters are more than willing to oblige by insisting on getting all ballots at one stop in the 18 cities and counties, whose residents account for nearly two thirds of Taiwan’s population. Each station is guarded by two policemen at most. If there are scores of voters demanding the one-stop distribution, the guards will have no way of controlling them. Should free-for-alls take place at a third of all polling stations, the CEC is entitled to declare the parliamentary elections invalid and announce another round of elections.

The current Legislative Yuan has to dissolve on Jan. 31, and the new legislature must be sworn in Feb. 1. But the new parliamentary elections can’t take place in a mere 19 days! The one certain result is that the Legislative Yuan will follow in the footsteps of the Control Yuan, which has ceased to function for two years.

Enter President Chen. He takes center stage by issuing emergency decrees, which, according to the Constitution, have to be ratified by the Legislative Yuan within ten days of issuance. With the nation’s highest legislative organ ceasing to function, he may do what he wishes and, if there is opposition, may call it a rebellion and declare martial law. And there is no Legislative Yuan to deem it necessary to request the president to terminate martial law in accordance with the Constitution. President Chen has vowed not to declare martial law during the rest of his second and last term. His promises, however, have seldom been kept. Besides, he will have a good alibi this time. He has a rebellion on his hands, which requires the enforcement of martial law. He will then be free to have a new constitution of a republic of Taiwan adopted and run for president and win.

To force the president to rewrite that scenario, the KMT has only one option: to accept the one-stop distribution of ballots and urge all its supporters to refuse to receive referendum ballots in the first election in the New Year. It must sacrifice its anti-corruption referendum in order to ensure its retention of the majority in the new Legislative Yuan. Without the majority in parliament, the opposition party cannot prevent the president from marching onward towards independence for Taiwan, triggering an invasion from China in the process.

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