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Updated Wednesday, January 18, 2012 11:51 am TWN, By Frank Ching

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Taiwanese must decide own fate

The re-election of Ma Ying-jeou was welcomed in China and brought a collective sigh of relief in the world's capitals, with congratulations pouring into Taiwan from the United States, the European Union, Japan, Australia and Singapore.

While the United States was officially neutral in Taiwan's election, it was clear that many American officials and scholars were quietly — and sometimes not so quietly — rooting for President Ma rather than his opponent, Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

That is because they feared another period of cross-strait turmoil, such as prevailed during the presidency of Chen Shui-bian, whom American officials labeled a troublemaker, willing to risk American lives while he repeatedly provoked Beijing.

Ma's victory means that the chances of a cross-strait confrontation have been greatly reduced in the next four years.

But what will happen in 2016? Will the world again be in a state of suspense while tiny Taiwan decides on its next leader?

Much, of course, will depend on what happens between now and then, not only in Taiwan but, even more importantly, in mainland China.

In Taiwan, the DPP will have to devise a new China strategy. Tsai's defeat can be attributed to voter distrust of the DPP's ability to manage the relationship with China even though she promised not to undo any of the 16 cross-strait agreements reached during the Ma administration.

Those agreements had been reached on the basis of the acceptance by both mainland China and Taiwan of the so-called “1992 Consensus,” reached in Hong Kong that year, under which both sides agree that there is only one China but each side is free to express the meaning of one China in its own way.

The so-called consensus can also be described as an agreement to disagree — with the mainland saying that “one China” is the People's Republic of China and Taiwan saying that it is the Republic of China. The reality, of course, is that the term “1992 Consensus” is a diplomatic fig leaf to cover up the lack of agreement. But, if Beijing is willing to accept the fig leaf, there is no good reason for Taiwan to demur.

So it is likely that the DPP will find that it has no choice but to accept the “1992 Consensus.” In addition, the DPP should accept the national flag and the anthem of the Republic of China. That is the least it can do if it wants to contest the presidency of the republic.

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