Arms deal causing China, U.S rift

The vociferous reaction, which includes not only suspending military-to-military relations with the United States (U.S.) but also sanctions against American companies producing and supplying these weapons, appears to suggest that Beijing does not appreciate the fact that the Obama administration saw to it that the weapons being sold are purely defensive in nature.

The bulk of the US$6.4 billion package consists of Patriot missiles, Black Hawk helicopters and minesweepers, the purpose of which is to defend Taiwan. These weapons cannot be used to attack the mainland.

And, of course, these weapons were requested by the government of President Ma Ying-jeou, which sees the need for Taiwan to be able to continue to defend itself.

China seems to want a Taiwan that is militarily impotent. But a Taiwan that feels desperate is more likely to behave irrationally than one that feels secure. And only when Taiwan feels secure is it likely to voluntarily enter into agreements with China — as it has been doing —first in economic areas and, possibly, later in the political realm as well.

Moreover, China should also try not to damage the increasingly precarious political position of President Ma, who faces re-election in 2012.

The Taiwan leader's support ratings have plunged precipitously since he first assumed office in May 2008 and, in recent months, his political party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has suffered embarrassing defeats in local and legislative by-elections.

If President Ma is unable to buy defensive weapons from the U.S., his support in Taiwan will erode still further.

And the alternative to a Ma administration would not be another KMT leader, but rather a return of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

It is in China's own interest to keep Mr. Ma in power and, hence, to accept the need for him to show the Taiwan electorate that he is doing what is expected of him in terms of seeing to the island's defense needs.

Beijing has to remember that Taiwan is now a democracy and Mr. Ma, if he is to remain president, must demonstrate that he is acting in the interests of the voters.

Thus, Beijing needs to understand the political needs of Taiwan's leader. It is also necessary for Beijing to be patient. It should not pressure Taiwan to take part in political talks before he feels ready.

China should also re-examine its own options for a future relationship between the mainland and Taiwan.

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