Still unclear on Hu's successor

Mao had said that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun and that the party must always command the gun and must not allow the gun to control the party.

True, Deng remained chairman of the military commission even after he gave up his party and governmental posts and Jiang remained head of the commission until two years after Hu became the party leader.

But Deng belonged to the era of strong men, who did not owe their power to their titles. Jiang belonged to the post-revolutionary generation and would have had no power if bereft of official positions. And during the two years when he commanded the military while Hu led the party, there were whispers of “two centers of power.”

Under the state constitution, the president is limited to two five-year terms, which means that Hu must step down in 2013. Moreover, a recently established convention is that no one aged 68 or above can be elected to the Politburo standing committee. This means that he must step down as general secretary no later than 2012, at the party's 18th congress in 2012, when he will already be 71.

However, there is no such convention for the chairman of the military commission, and both Mao and Deng continued to serve in that post into their 80s; Jiang was in his late 70s before stepping down.

So Hu may well be able to justify clinging onto that position, especially if the new party leader, Xi, has little experience on that commission. So Hu, by keeping Xi off the commission as long as possible, may be better able to justify his own hold on power. But that would certainly be at the expense of China's political stability and harmony.

Frank.ching@gmail.com

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