The politics of Beijing’s missile threat

But the aiming of more than a thousand missiles at such a tiny island as Taiwan, located such a short distance away from mainland China, is intended to have more psychological impact than purely military one in eyes of the Taiwanese. So will be the act of removing or reducing the number of them.

As most people can see, Beijing has already demonstrated its goodwill toward Taiwan ever since Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT won a landslide victory in the presidential election by openly accepting the principle of “one China with different interpretations.” This is why the Taiwan people have pinned so much hope on Vincent Siew, the vice president-elect, going to attend the forthcoming Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), where Siew is expected to have constructive talks on cross-strait relations with Hu Jintao, the supreme leader of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The move of the PRC to reduce the missile threat at this moment will add further momentum to this friendly climate. Any positive development over cross-strait relations while preserving the dignity of Taiwan as a sovereign entity will serve to enhance the prestige of both Ma and his KMT party, which is exactly what the Chen Shui-bian administration failed to achieve towards improve the livelihood of local residents.

Beijing must remember that its goodwill gesture toward Taiwan will also benefit itself. Increasing cross-strait exchanges will augment the growth of trade, tourism and cultural expansion. China may also benefit from Taiwan’s high-tech advancement. Moreover, the PRC’s increasingly liberal policies will help a great deal to divert world attention from its current anti-Tibetan activities. It has been reported that the Olympic torch relay was disrupted five times in Paris by pro-Tibetan protesters. As a result, the relay route may be forced to make changes. There are even calls from countries to boycott the Olympic Games to be hosted in Beijing.

Some China watchers in the United States have expressed hope that through goodwill interactions between Hu and Taipei’s new leadership “a dramatic breakthrough” will be created. This is what many political leaders would like to do, these experts claim, that is, if they encounter problems over a certain issue, they will attempt to change to a new subject.

This is exactly the political significance of reducing the missile threat posed to Taiwan, and Beijing will certainly derive substantial benefits from the move.

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