China military risks trampling on policy toes with exercises

“In the past, the focus was on economic development and our budget was low and we were marginalized. But now it's very different. We understand that a prosperous country needs a strong military,” he told Reuters earlier this year.

In June, the U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates took on what he saw as PLA pushiness. He claimed it was thwarting efforts to improve military ties, going against Chinese government efforts to ease tensions.

Gates' complaint came after vehement criticism of Washington by PLA officers, and Beijing's rejection of Gates' hopes to visit and revive military ties put on hold by China over U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan, the self-ruled island that China claims.

PLA officer-commentators have recently renewed tough words aimed at Washington. These public growls appear aimed at a domestic audience hungry for a strong voice, said Li, the analyst from the U.S. naval college.

But by creating public and elite expectations that China will stand tough, such talk may narrow room for quiet back-downs or sow uncertainty abroad about who is steering policy in Beijing.

“Compared to the past, the influence or constraining role of Chinese public opinion on Chinese foreign policy is striking,” Wang Wen, a senior commentator at the Global Times, an often ardently nationalist newspaper, wrote recently.

Not a Rogue

In Zhongnanhai, the Chinese Communist Party's walled compound where big decisions are made, the real problem may be ill-coordination, not disloyalty or outright division.

The Party demands unswerving military loyalty, especially to the top leader, currently Hu Jintao, who is also chairman of the Central Military Affairs Commission, the top body on PLA affairs.

“The PLA is still the Party's army. They're not running a rogue foreign policy,” said Finkelstein, the CNA analyst.

But under the canopy of Party-PLA unity, an “experience gap” has emerged, said Finkelstein.

Since the passing of China's revolutionary elders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, both deeply involved in military command, Chinese leaders have had little to do with the PLA until they reach the cusp of top power. In turn, PLA commanders are more focused on external priorities.

The naval analyst Li said an example of the trouble that can create was China's anti-satellite test in 2007, when the foreign ministry appeared ill-prepared for the test, which created international worry over space debris and Beijing's space plans.

By saying that the South China Sea is also an area of “core national interest” for China, the country's policy-makers have also risked their credibility, because their navy is not strong enough to enforce control of the sea, said Li.

“By elevating it to a core national interest without the means to defend it, China's deterrence is weakened,” he said.

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