International action on global climate may drift for years

Recession in industrialised countries has focused attention on the cost of cutting carbon emissions. And green motivations suffered a huge blow with the failure of U.N. negotiations to deliver a deal in Copenhagen in December.

Talks resume next week in Bonn, Germany, but a new draft text is as vague as ever on targets or a timetable to cut emissions.

“I suspect that we're in for a fairly long period of slowdown, you're talking about a two to three years' timeframe before you restore the political momentum,” said Tom Burke of Imperial College London.

The global renewable energy market is tipped to have a record year in 2010, thanks to existing support and subsidies, but a climate deal would boost investment above the current annual level of about US$200 billion.

Global consensus would add pressure to introduce national carbon caps. The United States and Australia each confirmed last week legislative delays on industry carbon emissions caps.

“Domestically, there is going to be (U.S.) climate policy, in terms of congressional action it's less likely,” said Harvard University's Robert Stavins, referring to state regulations which will likely apply in lieu of a stalled climate bill.

The most likely scenario for approval of a bill could be if U.S. President Barack Obama won a second term, from 2013, when recession was well over, Stavins added.

The U.S. delay would come as a “major disappointment” to governments and environmental groups, said Robert Watson, chief scientist at Britain's environment ministry.

“What signal does that send to other governments as they go into negotiations leading up to Cancun and beyond?” he said, referring to the next major U.N. climate meeting in Mexico at the end of the year.

The U.N. negotiations are meant to deliver a new deal to succeed the Kyoto Protocol whose present round expires in 2012.

Looking Over the Cliff

The negotiation doldrums are partly a failure of nerve.

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