British election polling split emphasizes the nature of polls

One is a near consensus view that Britain is heading for its first hung parliament since 1974 with no single party in overall control; the other sees a comfortable victory for the opposition Conservatives over ruling Labour.

Most pollsters, including ComRes, ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus and YouGov, have reported a decline in the Conservative lead since mid-January from a double digit gap last year to between around four and nine percent now.

By contrast, Angus Reid Public Opinion has consistently shown the Conservatives enjoying a double digit lead since it started surveying British political opinion last year.

Uncertainty generated by the polls has buffeted sterling, with traders driving the currency down 4 cents after a particularly narrow YouGov poll earlier this month, before buying it back days later on an Angus Reid poll.

The pound has fallen six percent against the dollar since January, in line with the decline in the Conservative lead reported by the main polling firms.

The Conservatives' sterner approach to tackling Britain's record 178 billion British pound (US$270 billion) budget deficit has found favor in financial markets. The Conservatives want to get to work on the deficit this year, while Labour's deficit reduction measures would only kick in next year.

Not Always Accurate

Polling companies have been measuring the political mood since the 1930s by interviewing a small but representative sample of the population and have a good track record of predicting election outcomes.

But they have suffered failures, miscalculating the outcomes of the 1948 U.S. presidential election, Britain's 1992 national vote and the first round of France's 2002 presidential race.

The current split in UK forecasting is caused by differing polling methodologies and creates a dilemma for anyone betting on the outcome — which pollster, if any, should they trust?

The contest pitches an old guard of established research firms against the fresh kid on the block, Angus Reid - part of Canadian research firm Vision Critical — new to Britain but whose chief executive is well known in north America.

The Conservatives are seen needing at least a 10-point advantage if they are to be certain of a majority in parliament, because of an uneven distribution of the vote.

That has lead to a widely held view the election, expected on May 6, will have an inconclusive result, a prospect that unnerves markets almost more than any other.

Angus Reid has consistently put Labour's share of the vote around 5 percentage points below other polls, while finding comparable results for the Conservatives and the smaller opposition Liberal Democrat party.

Its research director Andy Morris said the firm remained “very confident we are calling this correctly” despite its forecasts lying outside the range of other researchers.

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