Ukraine faces uncertainty after Yanukovich win

Even if Tymoshenko finally concedes, Yanukovich will have to be careful how he handles his powerful rival whose sizeable share of the vote has underscored her role as one of the most powerful and able politicians in Ukraine.

After the bitterness of the campaign in which she has openly insulted him, he has made it clear there is no prospect of an alliance with her.

Ukrainian media quoted him as saying she should prepare to resign as prime minister.

Assuming Yanukovich's victory is confirmed, Tymoshenko can expect in any case to be ousted as prime minister by a vote of no confidence in parliament. Yanukovich will then seek to put together a new coalition to get his own ally into the key role.

For this, however, he may need the support — by no means certain — of the Our Ukraine faction of President Viktor Yushchenko. Yanukovich may need only some of the Our Ukraine faction to secure a workable majority.

If this fails, then he will have to dissolve parliament and call a snap parliamentary poll which will put back further the chances of a stable government and delay the resumption of much-needed bail-out cash from the International Monetary Fund. Fresh parliamentary elections could be held as early as June though autumn is more likely. However, Yanukovich appears to be reluctant to call fresh elections, fearing voter fatigue.

Most analysts agree that the winning side needs a strong majority in parliament — if only to avoid the sort of paralyzing conflict there was between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.

“There are a lot challenges in the country. We don't want a repeat of the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko relationship,” said Tim Ash of the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Either way, a quick end to political tension in Ukraine appears unlikely.

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