Will North Korea resume nuclear talks?

Following are some questions about whether the North is set to return to disarmament-for-aid talks and what may happen next:

Will North Korea Return To Nuclear Talks?

North Korea's moves are often linked to the precarious state of its finances and the economic pressure it is facing now indicates it will likely return to the talks in the hopes of winning aid.

North Korea has attached two conditions to its return and a face-saving compromise would need to be found to resume the talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States (U.S.).

North Korea has called for an end to United Nations (U.N.) sanctions imposed to punish it for detonating a nuclear device in May 2009 and for direct talks with Washington to replace the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War with a peace treaty.

If Talks Resume, What Would Be The Next Step?

North Korea will be expected to resume where it left off when it stepped away from the disarmament-for-aid deal a year ago. This means taking apart its Yongbyon plant that makes arms-grade plutonium and allowing in international nuclear inspectors.

While this would help ease tension, it does not address the progress the North is believed to have made in uranium enrichment, which could give it a second path to a bomb.

Pyongyang may seek a much bigger payoff for giving up its uranium ambitions and this could bog down already sputtering negotiations for several more years.

Can The Talks Break Down?

Most analysts feel a breakdown is inevitable because there is little reason for Kim Jong-il to ever give up nuclear arms. The North's propaganda has justified years of sacrifice to build a nuclear program to prevent an invasion from a hostile U.S. and the weapons are seen at home as the crowning achievement of Kim's military-first rule.

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