Another bumpy year for U.S.-China trade

But rising Chinese exports to the United States as the nation climbs out of recession open the door for more Section 421 and other injury cases, while Chinese companies have shown willingness to bring their own complaints against U.S. firms.

But as dramatic as some individual cases can be, they still cover only a tiny volume of trade and so it is an exaggeration to call such actions a trade war, Spak said.

Chinese exports to the United States peaked at US$34 billion a month in October 2008, just as the full extent of the global financial crisis was being realized in the United States.

By February 2009, they had fallen to less than US$19 billion. But since then, they have risen more or less steadily to US$29.5 billion in October 2009, the most recent data.

Annual Chinese exports to the United States could approach US$300 billion in 2009 when final statistics are in, down from US$338 billion in 2008. That's a much smaller drop than for many other countries that export products into the United States.

“The robust growth of China's economy is going to overwhelm any routine trade barriers put into place,” said Daniel Griswold of the Cato Institute think tank.

Although Obama angered China with his tires decision, he pleased Beijing by refusing to formally label it as a currency manipulator in a semi-annual U.S. Treasury Department report.

Obama is unlikely to change that stance even though the United States would be justified in challenging China's currency actions as a violation of trade rules, Schagrin said.

Meanwhile, there have been threats in the U.S. Congress for years to pass legislation aimed at China based on the belief that Beijing gives its companies an unfair trade advantage by maintaining an artificially cheap currency.

Gresser said it was unlikely that U.S. congressional leaders will allow any action that could spook financial markets by raising fears of an all-out trade war.

The AFL-CIO, the largest U.S. labor organization, could try to prod Obama into action on the currency issue, said Thea Lee, deputy chief of staff for the 11.5-million-member AFL-CIO.

The labor group is considering filing a petition asking Obama to formally investigate whether China's currency policy is an unfair trade practice and a second one asking for a probe of China's internal labor practices, Lee said.

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