Economy key to North Korea talks

“It is still too early to tell if the North is desperate enough to make the strategic decision about a change in its nuclear arms program,” said a diplomatic source in Seoul. But Kim, it appears, has backed himself into a corner after having pledged to turn North Korea into a “strong and prosperous nation” by 2012 to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of his father and the state's founder, Kim Il-Sung.

Meeting that promise and Kim's need to pay off cadres to win their support for a generational change in Asia's only communist dynasty help explain why he abruptly stopped raising tensions with the international community after numerous missile launches this year and a nuclear test in May.

“This puts pressure on the regime to get as much aid as it can, as fast as it can,” said B.R. Myers, an expert on the North's state ideology at Dongseo University in South Korea. “To say that it will be a strong and prosperous country and to say that will be achieved by 2012, and to raise expectations, is actually a very risky thing.”

The year 2012 not only marks the 100th anniversary of the elder Kim's birth. It may also be the year when Kim Jong-Il, 67, announces to his countrymen that he is handing over power to the youngest of his three sons.

Unlike other times when the North's leaders were able to claim victory by touting fictitious economic achievements or blaming U.S. imperialists for its woes, the North will have to show its citizens real change by 2012 because it has raised expectations so high, analysts said.

1|2|Next Page>>

SharePrintEmail

Write a Comment

Enter your comments - 3000 characters max

Type in image code

Submit

 Receive China Post promos Respond to this email