Grim Chinese views of N. Korea suggest rethink

For Drew Thompson, an expert at the Nixon Center in Washington who has studied Beijing's ties with Pyongyang, the overt expression of disenchantment suggests the Chinese government wants to prepare public opinion for harsher policies towards a country long lauded as a plucky communist friend.

“They're trying to shape elite opinion so it's not an unconditional relationship ... What they're doing is creating options for themselves,” Thompson said of China's leaders.

That said, few expect Beijing to opt for tougher pressure against Pyongyang soon.

China backed a U.N. resolution condemning the North's nuclear test and imposing fresh sanctions, but Beijing has long been reluctant to press for more. Last week, foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a news conference that sanctions should not damage ordinary trade and aid.

Chinese commentators have, nonetheless, become increasingly blunt in dismissing the six-party talks aimed at eventually ending North Korea's nuclear arms programme.

“Compared with this sense of failure, many Chinese experts and advisers are more concerned with the threat Pyongyang's nuclear weapons poses to China's security,” stated the English-language China Daily last week.

“Such an attitude on the part of Pyongyang is a warning that China should reconsider its national interests.”

Chinese experts and policy-makers increasingly believe they have reached an impasse with the North, said Susan Shirk, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of California, San Diego, and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state.

“I think they recognize that North Korea has subverted the six-party talks without any good cause,” said Shirk, author of 'Fragile Superpower', which examines the impact of public opinion on Chinese foreign policy.

“But they have no new ideas about how to deal with North Korea,” said Shirk, who recently visited China.

Thompson said tools China could use to put pressure on North Korea included “limited disruptions” to oil supplies, refusing right of passage to North Korean ships, or downgrading the ceremonial events marking the two countries' year of friendship.

Still, the surge of negative commentary from China did not mean such steps were imminent, Thompson stressed.

“Until public opinion shifts away from China's historic ties and obligations to the DPRK ... China will have fewer options to influence Pyongyang's behaviour,” he said.

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